© S. Fujii et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2025

1 Introduction

The effects of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident have been prolonged in severely contaminated areas. More than 10 yr after the disaster, there are still restricted areas in parts of seven municipalities, and evacuation orders are in place. The Japanese government anticipates that residents of those areas will be able to return to their homes in the 2020s, if they wish (Reconstruction Agency, 2023). However, detailed plans for decontamination and return have yet to be determined, and the evacuees involved may face a lack of future prospects. Those who evacuated have shown greater psychological distress and lower subjective and psychological wellbeing scores than returnees (Murakami et al., 2019; Murakami et al., 2020). Cernea (1997) states that the risks of the involuntary migration of local populations, due to developments aimed at improving people’s livelihoods and national/regional economic development, include landlessness, marginalisation and social disarticulation, and similar effects can be assumed for those displaced following a radiation disaster. Examining the severe social and psychological impacts of long-term displacement after the Fukushima accident and considering recovery methods are important, along with infrastructure reconstruction and environmental restoration (Yonetani, 2017). Furthermore, developing long-term recovery processes after a large-scale accident that reflect the findings from Fukushima is important, from a nuclear emergency preparedness perspective. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Committee on Radiological Protection and Public Health has highlighted the need for a cross-sectoral, comprehensive and multidimensional approach that takes into account impacts on diverse elements, such as health, the environment, economy, society and culture, and emphasised the importance of a preparatory phase to address both emergency protective measures after an accident and non-radiological long-term impacts, such as mental health, wellbeing, environmental and socio-economic effects (NEA, 2021, 2022).

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP, 2020) distinguishes three phases of the post-radiological accident period: early, intermediate and long-term phases. During the early phase, a large quantity of radioactive material is released into the environment, and protective measures are taken to avoid or reduce radiation exposure. During the intermediate phase, the source of the release is stabilised, the protective measures of the emergency response period are completed as additional measures are implemented to further reduce exposure. The long-term phase focuses on long-term protective measures to restore people’s living conditions. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (2018) divides the period after a radiation accident into emergency response and transition phases. Regarding the situation after the Fukushima accident, the ICRP (2020) declared the beginning of the off-site long-term phase to be 1 April 2012, when the evacuation zone reorganisation began following the cold shutdown. However, given the complexity of the situation and circumstances following a major nuclear disaster, the phase transition may not occur simultaneously in all affected areas (IAEA, 2018; ICRP, 2020). Access to the area around the FDNPS has remained restricted. As of 2024, Futaba and Okuma Towns, where the FDNPS is located, are divided into three areas with different reconstruction status: habitable areas, where evacuation orders have been lifted (‘former restricted area’); restricted areas, where the lifting of evacuation orders is pending; and the interim storage facility for soil and waste containing radioactive caesium derived from environmental decontamination efforts to reduce air dose rates of which the Ministry of the Environment is in charge. It is assumed that the interim storage facility’s situation will not change until the soil and waste are disposed of outside of Fukushima, by 2045 (Fig. 1).

When the livelihood recovery process of people affected by disasters involves evacuation, their needs shift from the early to the long-term phase, from maintaining life to social reintegration, or from material to spiritual aspects. For example, Blackman et al. (2017) noted the need for a different approach to recovery after technical routines, such as rescue and restoration, are implemented during the early phase, since the nature of the problems and objectives in the long-term phase are different. The same has been observed in Japan. For example, following the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of 1995, the key factors for rebuilding the lives of those affected changed over time, from housing to connection with people and community (Tatsuki, 2007). Further, Takano et al. (2013a, 2013b) showed, in relation to the recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, that evacuees’ needs changed over time, from survival immediately after the disaster, to health, hygiene and social life during the long-term phase, and then cultural life and improvement of liveability.

Concerning the recovery process following a radiation disaster, the emergency response, especially in the early stages, is well developed, mainly based on measures to avoid acute, high-level exposure (IAEA, 2002, 2018; ICRP, 2020). However, in the long-term recovery process calls for a rehabilitation of social life and psychological aspects increase long after the accident and are not easily generalisable, as there are few prior examples to refer to and the issues to be considered are more diverse and complex than those in the early phase. This becomes even more complex when evacuation is involved.

This study examined changes in the interests of Futaba Town residents after evacuation concerning the rebuilding of their lives. By using text mining methods to analyse residents’ statements at town meetings held over several years, we identified topics mentioned by a large percentage of attendees and considered of high interest using a multifaceted approach. We examined the characteristics over time, and in terms of their past residential area’s designation. Our results contribute to understanding the situation of an affected municipality and evacuated residents, identify concerns of note for the future and help when considering and creating more realistic and concrete preparations and timelines for long-term recovery following a nuclear accident.

Fig. 1 Timeline of Futaba Town’s zoning and status of after the accident.

2 Materials and methods

2.1 Study site

Futaba Town, Futaba County, Fukushima Prefecture is the site of FDNPS Units 5 and 6. Due to high radiation levels after the accident, the entire town was evacuated for more than 11 yr. In 2020, the evacuation order was lifted for a small part of the town, which was the last of the 12 municipalities subject to the order. Roughly 15% of the surface area of the town (home to about 60% of the registered population) was declared habitable on 30 August 2022, with the lifting of the evacuation order in the specified reconstruction and revitalisation base area; however, most of the town’s surface area (85%) remains restricted, has not been decontaminated and houses the interim storage facility area (Futaba Town, 2013; Reconstruction Agency, 2017; Fukushima Prefecture, 2024) (Fig. 1).

Futaba Town has 17 administrative districts, and its population before the accident was approximately 7,100 (Futaba Town, 2024b); as of 31 August 2023, only 30 people had returned, excluding new residents (Futaba Town, 2023a). According to the Futaba Town 2022 Resident Opinion Survey, 56% of respondents have decided not to return, mainly because they have bought or built a home in the place to which they evacuated and plan to remain there (Reconstruction Agency et al., 2023).

2.2 Data

Futaba Town holds an annual residents’ meeting attended by the mayor, town hall managers and residents in order to reflect residents’ voices in town policies, and the first meetings after the disaster were held in 2012. For the convenience of the evacuated residents, the meetings are held annually at more than 10 venues in major cities and towns in and outside of the Fukushima Prefecture. The main topics of discussion at the post-disaster meetings are the status of the town’s recovery and reconstruction plans (Futaba Town, 2021) (Supplementary Material 1). All meetings’ minutes have been available on the town website since 2014 (Futaba Town, 2024b). Considering that the opinions shared reflect residents’ areas of strong interest, the minutes of the meetings held in 2015, 2018, 2021 and 2022 were analysed (Tab. 1). In all, 804 statements were analysed, and in cases where there were multiple questions or comments in one statement, they were counted as separate questions or comments. Only the speaker’s gender was indicated in the minutes through 2021, other demographics are unknown. In 2022, information on the administrative district in which the speaker resided prior to evacuation was indicated, along with gender.

2.3 Analysis

We used KH Coder, a quantitative text analysis tool, for the analysis (Higuchi, 2016, 2017). Quantitative text analysis is a method of organising or analysing text quantitatively to perform content analysis. In word extraction, special words not automatically extracted by KH Coder, such as ‘lifting evacuation order’ and ‘restricted area’ were designated as words for forced extraction in a pre-processing step. To highlight words unique to this case, commonly used ones, such as ‘town’, ‘think’ and ‘say’, were excluded. A co-occurrence network of automatically extracted words with similar patterns of occurrence, which are connected by lines, has been created to identify the main topics in the residents’ statements at the residents’ meetings. The Jaccard coefficient was used as a measure of co-occurrence.

To gain a multifaceted understanding of residents’ interests, as inferred from their statements, we created ten subcategories and classified and organised them into three categories: environmental, economic and social (Tab. 2). The subcategories and three larger categories were created with reference to sustainable remediation (SR), a framework for considering sustainability in the remediation of contaminated soils (Bardos et al., 2020). SR involves stakeholders in the remediation and redevelopment of contaminated sites and promotes a balanced decision-making process using indicators to evaluate environmental, economic and social aspects. The words and phrases comprising each subcategory were extracted from the meetings’ minutes. The environmental category included statements on agriculture and wildlife; the economic category included statements on compensation; and the social category included statements on safety, decontamination, interim storage facilities, culture, return, life in evacuation and infrastructure. Decontamination was included in the social category, rather than environmental, because it had more social implications, such as the management of property, including homes. It was not so much focussed on the restoration of the natural environment. Interim storage facility was also categorised in the social, rather than the environmental, category because statements made by residents who offered their homes to the state for interim storage facilities and statements about the impact of facility operations on the community and town comprised the main part. Sentences were coded according to the presence or absence of related words. The coding rules are presented in Supplementary Material 2. If a question/comment contained the theme of more than one subcategory, it was counted the same number of times, thus the total number of occurrences of the subcategory and the questions/comments do not match.

3 Results

3.1 Major topics of the meetings

The total number of words used by the participants in the subject meetings was 52,562. The most frequently used words were demolition (132), decontamination (128), evacuation (112), lifting (the evacuation order) (111) and house (97) (Supplementary Material 3).

Figure 2 shows the co-occurrence network, which was automatically generated by the KH coder, of 102 words used at least 25 times, with the 60 most strongly co-occurring pairs connected by lines. The word groups connected by lines are the most common topics raised in the residents’ meetings and serve as overviews of the residents’ statements. Eleven groups of words connected by lines were generated, representing attendees’ main interests: environmental degradation, temporary accommodation, agriculture, return intention survey, housing demolition, resident meetings, return, interim storage facility, public housing, district maintenance and compensation.

Table 3 shows the number of occurrences of each subcategory by year. Infrastructure was the most frequent subcategory mentioned, followed by decontamination, return, compensation, safety, interim storage facility, life in evacuation, culture, agriculture and wild animals.

The following are examples of comments/questions categorised in each subcategory:

Safety

In the model zone for the resumption of farming, the radiation dose is decreasing at the edge of the mountains, but once you step into the mountains, the dose is still between 4 and 6 mSv/h. I have doubts about the resumption of food production. (2022, Male)

Infrastructure:

Many areas around the houses have been cleared, but does the town have a reuse plan? (2021, Male)

Decontamination:

The government will demolish or decontaminate the areas for those who wish to return, but not for those who have decided not to return. (2021, Male)

Return:

Regarding the preparatory stay from January 2022, is the period of stay limited, or is it possible to continue living there until the evacuation order is lifted in June or later? (2021, Male)

Life in evacuation:

About administrative services, I am often disappointed that some services are not available in the municipality where I live because I don’t have a residence record there. Can the town hall assist with this? (2015, Male)

I would like to know the handling of my residence record after the evacuation order is lifted. (2018, Male)

Culture:

On the issue of access to Koriyama Beach, I am not asking for any specific facilities. I just want to go to the beach and remember the old days. What conditions are preventing it? Is there any chance of improvement by the lifting of evacuation order (for specified reconstruction and revitalisation base areas) scheduled for next year? I ask you to make it possible to go to the sea as soon as possible. (2021, Male)

Fig. 2 Co-occurrence network of frequently occurring words and major topics.

3.2 Characteristics according to meeting year

A correspondence analysis was performed for the ten subcategories, with the meeting year as an external variable (Fig. 3a). The subcategories are indicated by circles and the external variable by squares. Topics near the origin appear regardless of the external variable, while those that appear outward from the origin in the direction of the external variable are characteristic of that external variable. Main topics in the 2015 meetings were interim storage facility and wild animals. In 2018 and 2021, the top references were to return, culture and decontamination, and in 2022 it was agriculture. Life in evacuation was a top concern in 2015 and 2022. Statements related to infrastructure, safety and compensation were not characterised by meeting year.

Fig. 3 Correspondence analysis of subcategories: (a) topics by year, (b) topics by designated areas in 2022.

3.3 Topics by designated area

Since the minutes of the 2022 meetings detailed the administrative district in which the residents resided before the accident, we conducted a correspondence analysis with the three current areas (former restricted, restricted and interim storage facility) as external variables. Four administrative districts contained both former restricted and restricted areas, and one administrative district was divided into three areas; therefore, these five districts were referred to as a ‘multiple area’ as an external variable for the statements made. In the former restricted area, references to life in evacuation, culture, and agriculture were common. In the restricted area, statements about return prevailed. In the interim storage facility area, references to interim storage facility and safety were common. Infrastructure, compensation and decontamination were common topics in all areas (Fig. 3b).

4 Discussion

4.1 Residents’ changing interests

The most commonly mentioned subcategories differed from year to year, indicating residents’ shifting concerns between 2015 and 2022. Possible reasons for this may be the town’s changing situation due to reconstruction policies (e.g., designated areas’ reorganisation, acceptance of interim storage facilities, partial and phased decontamination and lifting of evacuation orders) and changes in residents’ lives and feelings over time.

Meetings in 2015 were dominated by interest in the interim storage facility, with questions about the contract for the facility’s land and the facility/plan itself. It was the year when the decision was made to accept the facility and delivery of contaminated soil. The lack of mention of the facility after 2018 suggests that interest in it decreased, likely because a majority of residents sold their land for the facility, the soil and other materials’ delivery was well-established with a stable situation and the Ministry of the Environment and the Interim Storage Facility Environmental Safety Committee held regular meetings with residents’ representatives to update them on the facility’s status and the safety of the surrounding area (Ministry of the Environment, 2024). The year was also characterised by comments and questions about wild animals, perhaps because damage to houses became more noticeable when residents visited their homes.

The 2018 and 2021 meetings were characterised by statements related to culture, suggesting a shift to the spiritual aspect of people’s needs, which is the later part of the recovery process. Takano et al. (2013a, 2013b) reported that, in the Iwate and Miyagi prefectures, which were affected by the earthquake and tsunami, victims’ needs changed from maintaining life to maintaining health and hygiene, maintaining social life and maintaining cultural life, in that order, within about two months of the disaster. Maintaining cultural life was also common to the QOL evaluation indicators, such as quality culture, entertainment and scenery, in normal times (Ülengin et al., 2001; Kachi et al., 2006). Comments from 2021 related to culture seem to correspond to the period when the need for maintaining cultural life increased in Takano et al.’s works (2013a, 2013b), while evacuation orders were still in effect. Ando et al. (2023) reported on statements made by the younger generation at the 2022 dialogue meeting involving residents and experts. While they appreciated the reconstruction, including infrastructure development and the lifting of evacuation orders, they also expressed mixed feelings about the changing landscape of their hometowns and about reconstruction efforts that ignored history. These statements made in the 2022 dialogue suggest that it is important to consider cultural perspectives, such as landscape and history, when thinking about how the town should be reconstructed. This is consistent with the increase in references to culture in the second half of the period covered by this study.

In 2018 and 2021, the frequency of statements in sub-category ‘return’ was common and may have been influenced by the temporary return and stay programme introduced to prepare for the lifting of the evacuation order in some areas in 2022. Decontamination was also a common concern during these years, likely reflecting the fact that no detailed plan for the decontamination and return of residents had yet been decided, despite the anticipated lifting of evacuation orders in part of the town. Since a majority of the land was still in a restricted area, there was much talk about decontamination and homes’ demolition in the restricted area.

References to life in evacuation were noteworthy in 2015 and 2022, presumably for different reasons. The comments becoming less prominent after 2015 may reflect the gradual stabilisation of life under evacuation, while the increase in 2022 may reflect the growing number of requests and questions about administrative procedures for evacuees, community associations, public housing, etc. following the partial lifting of the evacuation order and the reopening of Futaba Town Hall. The increase in comments on agriculture in 2022 may reflect concerns for environmental restoration, preservation, farmland maintenance and the future resumption of farming operations as reconstruction plans progressed.

Topics related to infrastructure, safety and compensation were mentioned in all years, indicating that these issues have not been resolved over the long-term. A questionnaire survey conducted in 2022 by Hande et al. (2023) also confirmed that many evacuated residents of Futaba town perceived a high risk of radiation. This result is consistent with the fact that safety-related statements in the present analysis did not decrease over time.

4.2 Impact of post-accident zoning on residents’ interests

Since the minutes of the 2022 meetings included speakers’ administrative district of residence prior to evacuation, we could confirm differences in statements by people from the three areas after the accident. In the former restricted area, the evacuation order had been lifted for only a few months. Life in evacuation was a distinctive concern there, and questions about administrative services after the order’s lifting may have stemmed from concerns about how it might affect their current lives. The fact that culture was also a distinctive concern may reflect a shift to focus on how to preserve Futaba Town’s culture and landscape.

Many comments on returning to the restricted area may have been influenced by the August 2022 survey by the Cabinet Office and Futaba Town about residents’ intent to return to the area (Futaba Town, 2023b).

While the interim storage facility was not a prominent topic in the 2022 temporal transition analysis, it was notable in the 2022 analysis by designated areas. Although there had been no major changes in the situation since soil delivery began in 2015, it remained a continuing topic of significant concern for area residents because, even while evacuated, they joined in activities to preserve the area’s history and residents’ memories, such as the publication of the booklet Oazashi Hosoya (History of the Hosoya District), depicting life and history in the district before the earthquake (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 2023).

Infrastructure, compensation and decontamination were common concerns in all areas, as past residents remained interested in the town’s recovery. That infrastructure, including Futaba’s physical reconstruction, was one of the most common topics regardless of area is consistent with the survey result (Reconstruction Agency et al., 2023) that more than 65% of respondents wanted to stay connected to the town. This high level of interest in the town and maintaining connections may be a key factor in Futaba’s reconstruction.

4.3 Implications

By conducting a quantitative text analysis of the minutes of the Futaba residents’ meetings, we captured temporal changes in their interests. These concerned environmental, economic and social aspects, with the social element accounting for a large proportion of all comments. While some topics, such as interim storage facility and temporary visits and stays, corresponded with the progress of the government’s reconstruction efforts, others, such as safety and culture, seemed to emerge spontaneously. As observed following natural disasters, people’s needs transition from survival to spiritual and cultural concerns in the later stages of the recovery process. However, compared with natural disasters, the transition in Futaba was much slower and different, in that people wanted to preserve the culture of their old neighbourhoods, even while evacuated. This may be due to the prolonged evacuation time; thus, in the later part of recovering from a nuclear disaster, it is important to address improvements in quality of life and to plan reconstruction with local history and culture in mind. It is also true that social aspects and factors that increase quality of life are different and unique to each person, so further study is needed in this regard.

In 2022, the region was rearranged into three areas according to contamination status and reconstruction policy, and the concerns of the areas’ residents varied greatly as a result. Even if an area is divided due to recovery policies, it is critical to consider measures that do not divide the community.

4.4 Limitations

Many of the meetings we studied were held during the daytime on weekdays, so there may have been a bias in participants’ ages and occupations, skewing in favour of older people. Gender bias was also noted, as women made only 20% of the total number of statements analysed. Further, analyses of statements made at these meetings do not reflect the interests of the ‘silent majority’, as only comments by those who attended and spoke were considered.

Finally, because we used data from meetings from 2015, 2018, 2021 and 2022, other years’ data were not included in the analysis. The meetings’ main topics that were not covered in the analysis do not differ significantly from those included (Supplementary Material 1); therefore, the general trend in the results can be considered supplemented by the 4 yr analysis. From 2023 onward, decontamination of the specific revitalised residential areas is scheduled to occur according to a plan based on the results of the intention to return survey and the town’s policies. We must continue studying the issues residents face as they change with the town’s recovery status.

5 Conclusion

In this study, we used a text analysis of Futaba Town residents’ comments at town meetings to investigate people’s concerns about rebuilding their lives following the accident at the FDNPS. These were diverse and included environmental, economic and social worries, with social aspects accounting for a particularly large proportion. The subjects of interest were not only the government’s reconstruction projects but also concerns that emerged spontaneously from and that led to the improvement of quality of life. A change in people’s needs toward the spiritual dimension (quality), such as maintaining cultural life, was observed, though these changes occur much later than in the recovery from natural disasters. People are also interested in the culture of their pre-disaster neighbourhoods, even while evacuated, suggesting that, in the later part of the recovery process after a disaster, it is important to respond to improve the quality of life and to plan recovery efforts considering local histories and cultures. The study’s results contribute to the consideration and preparation of more realistic and concrete plans and timelines for long-term recovery following a nuclear accident.

Acknowledgments

We thank Yasuharu Hashimoto, of Futaba Town Hall, for his valuable comments, and Speedtensaku.com (https://www.speedtensaku.com/) for editing a draft of this manuscript.

Funding

This work was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF22S20930) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency provided by Japan’s Ministry of the Environment.

Conflicts of interest

The authors have no competing interests.

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at the following URL:https://www.town.fukushima-futaba.lg.jp/4688.htm.

Author contribution statement

S Fujii: Conceptualisation, methodology, investigation, writing original draft

M Takada: Conceptualisation, writing, reviewing, editing

T Yasutaka: Conceptualisation, supervision, reviewing

Supplementary Material

Supplementary material 1. Outline of Futaba residents’ meetings from 2012 to 2022

Supplementary material 2. Coding rules and category, subcategory and related words

Supplementary material 3. 50 frequently mentioned words in residents’ statements

References

All Tables

All Figures

	Fig. 1 Timeline of Futaba Town’s zoning and status of after the accident.
In the text

	Fig. 2 Co-occurrence network of frequently occurring words and major topics.
In the text

	Fig. 3 Correspondence analysis of subcategories: (a) topics by year, (b) topics by designated areas in 2022.
In the text