Article

Uncertainty propagation from ensemble dispersion simulations through a terrestrial food chain and dose model

¹ BfS − Bundesamt für Strahlenschutz, Oberschleißheim, Germany
² KNMI – Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands

^* Corresponding author: thamburger@bfs.de

Abstract

In the framework of the European project CONFIDENCE, Work Package 1 (WP1) focused on the uncertainties in the pre- and early phase of a radiological emergency. One subtask was to analyse the propagation of uncertainties from ensemble dispersion simulations through a terrestrial food chain and dose model. Uncertainties that may occur in the modelling of radioactivity in the food chain were added to previously defined meteorological and source term uncertainties. Endpoints of the ensemble calculations within the food chain model included activity concentrations in the food chain, i.e. feedstuffs and foodstuffs, as well as the internal dose through ingestion. This paper describes the uncertainty propagation through a terrestrial food chain and dose model and presents some illustrations of the results.