Volume 55, May 2020Coping with uncertainties for improved modelling and decision making in nuclear emergencies. Key results of the CONFIDENCE European research project
|Page(s)||S175 - S180|
|Section||DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTIES|
|Published online||20 May 2020|
Different types of uncertainty in nuclear emergency management
UW – University of Warwick,
Coventry, United Kingdom
2 PHA – Public Health England, Chilton, Didcot, United Kingdom
3 NMBU/CERAD − Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Environmental Radioactivity, Ås, Norway
4 SCK-CEN − Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Mol, Belgium
* Corresponding author: email@example.com
The objective of the CONFIDENCE project has been to identify, assess and communicate the uncertainties that arise in managing and recovering from a nuclear accident. To do that, it is important to be clear on what uncertainty means, how it arises and how we might analyse it. In fact, there are many forms of uncertainty, some of which we can assess with current tools, but some of which are more nebulous and difficult to deal with. Nonetheless, all need to be communicated to the emergency managers. Starting with a review of different categories of uncertainties, and using examples from the CONFIDENCE project, this paper discusses how the various uncertainties are manifested in nuclear emergency management. It concludes with a simple framework for categorising and analysing them. The overall intention is that such a framework could contribute to a broader discussion on identifying and handling uncertainties with nuclear emergency management actors
Key words: radiological emergency / uncertainties / decision support / CONFIDENCE
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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